ASSESSMENT AND MODELING OF THE SOCIAL EFFECTS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES

The article examines the social effects of the development of small and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan, where prior research has mainly concentrated on macroeconomic factors while neglecting social outcomes. The study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of the SME sector on key social indicators, such as household income, poverty rates, and reliance on targeted social assistance and to identify regional variations in these effects. It uses panel data from 15 regions of Kazakhstan spanning 2005–2023 (285 observations) and employs panel regression models with fixed and random effects. The findings show that an increase in the share of SMEs in the regional economy has a statistically significant positive impact on household income, while also helping to reduce poverty and the number of social assistance recipients. Nevertheless, growth in the number of SME entities or jobs within the sector alone does not ensure improved well-being, emphasizing the importance of productivity and job quality. These results underscore the role of SMEs as a key driver of inclusive economic growth and social resilience.