Oil as a Tool for Political Influence: Opportunities and Risks

ABSTRACT The use of an “oil weapon,” despite pre-dating the Arab–Israeli conflict of 1973, first gained conceptual traction in that year, in the context of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ceasing oil exports to the United States and other providers of military aid to Israel during the Arab–Israeli (“October”) War. It remains a concept recognized today, primarily as a means by which an oil-purchasing country can exert influence on an oil-producing country. Yet neither the efficacy nor the nature of this “weapon” can be assumed, and this article therefore seeks to explore the use of this strategic tool by combining a review of key literature with historical and contemporary examples of its enactment. It is intended that by doing this, the article clarifies the position, utility, and definition of oil as a weapon. Reflecting on the concept of “oil weapon” in this way, the article suggests three things: first, that its current applications have limited efficacy; second, that a change in terminology has occurred by stealth, with “sanctions” now a more appropriate and normalized term; and third, that it is a strategy which will become more pertinent, and potentially more dangerous, as global oil production peaks. As supplies dwindle, there is potential for conflict over the remaining supplies. Ultimately, however, the oil weapon can only be a temporary strategy, before becoming a historical action, potentially replaced by novel forms of energy sanctions which reflect the evolving use of renewable fuel sources.