CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS IMPACTS ON SAFFRON (CROCUS SATIVUS L.) CULTIVATION IN THE KASHMIR VALLEY

Climate variability has emerged as a major environmental challenge influencing agricultural sustainability, particularly in fragile Himalayan agro-ecosystems. Saffron (Crocus sativus L.), a high-value and climatesensitive crop cultivated predominantly in the Kashmir Valley, is increasingly exposed to environmental stress due to changing temperature and precipitation patterns. The present study examines the influence of recent climatic variability on saffron cultivation with special reference to key agrometeorological parameters, including temperature, rainfall, and snowfall trends in the Kashmir Valley. Multi-year climatic data (2010–2024) were analyzed to assess trends in mean temperature and precipitation and their relationship with saffron productivity. Saffron yield data were obtained from official agricultural records for the corresponding period. Trend and correlation analyses were employed to evaluate the influence of climatic variables on saffron yield. The results indicate a statistically significant increasing trend in mean temperature and high inter-annual variability in precipitation, accompanied by a decline in snowfall during the saffron growing season. These climatic changes have adversely affected soil moisture availability, flowering behavior, and corm development, leading to a continuous decline in saffron productivity.