The Taming of the Skew: Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy

Time-varying asymmetric inflation risks generate persistent stagflationary effects. A quantitative general equilibrium model with time-varying skewness in the distribution of cost-push shocks matches these effects. Central to the analysis is a representation theorem that provides a tractable characterization of a broad class of models with asymmetric shock distributions. The theorem enables a closed-form characterization of optimal monetary policy, according to which the central bank should lean against the balance of inflation risks, while rendering quantitative general-equilibrium models with time-varying risks amenable to counterfactual and scenario analysis.