Proposing Electricity Policy by Forecasting the Share of Renewable Energy Generation in Jeju

This paper forecasts the future share of renewable energy generation in the Jeju power system by jointly considering the expansion of renewable energy facilities and the growth of electricity demand. To this end, multiple electricity demand models are developed based on the Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand and are combined with renewable energy capacity plans to analyze annual and time-of-day generation shares. In addition, the variation in the share of renewable energy generation is compared under different operating conditions of HVDC with the mainland power system. The results show that, although renewable energy generation increases, its share in total electricity supply exhibits different trends depending on changes in electricity demand, and that HVDC operating conditions have a significant impact on renewable energy hosting capacity. Based on these findings, this paper provides insights that can be used to support future power system operation and energy policy formulation aimed at expanding renewable energy.