Maranhao 2045: from ore exporter to global player – the vertical integration of rare earth minerals

The growing global demand for Rare Earth Elements (REEs), essential inputs for the energy transition, is marked by a high geopolitical concentration in the supply chain. In this context, Brazil seeks to position itself as an alternative supplier, facing the historical challenge of vertically integrating its mineral production. This article analyzes the prospective potential of the state of Maranhão to consolidate itself as an integrated industrial hub for rare earth elements (REEs), with a horizon up to 2045. The methodology was based on qualitative document analysis, triangulating data from geological reports, infrastructure and business plans, and national strategic studies. The results identify four main geological axes with potential for REE (Lower Itapecuru, Northwest, East/Southeast, and Southwest/South-Central), rich in minerals such as monazite and xenotime. More crucially, the existence of a mature logistical-industrial advantage is noted, composed of the triad of Itaqui Port, Carajás Railway, and the Bacabeira Export Processing Zone(EPZ), which enables local processing. It is concluded that the unique synergy between geological resources and existing logistical infrastructure offers Maranhão the conditions for the vertical integration of the production chain. The success of this vision, however, is contingent upon overcoming critical challenges, notably the technological mastery of oxide separation metallurgy and the rigorous management of radioactive waste (NORM/TENORM).