AAgWa Crop Production Forecasts Briefs No. 339

T he crop production forecasts brief series by AKADEMIYA2063's Africa Agriculture Watch (AAgWa) aims to provide more accurate and timely data on harvests and yields for 11 major crops across nearly 50African countries.The timeliness, wide availability, and easy access to this type of data will allow stakeholders across the value chain to better plan and execute policy and business actions more efficiently.The data published in the briefs are generated through the Africa Crop Production (AfCP) model, an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based model applied to remotely sensed geo-biophysical data to produce estimates at pixel as well as administrative levels as early as the beginning of each growing season.In Brief 339, we provide forecasts on maize production in Kenya.In 2026, maize production in Kenya is projected to reach 3,969,841 metric tons (MT), indicating a 2% increase over 2025 production levels.The highest maize producers are expected to be Narok West (Narok), Kieni (Nyeri), Ganze (Kilifi), Kinango (Kwale), and Laikipia North (Laikipia), with production levels estimated at 107,296 MT, 95,368 MT, 94,189 MT, 92,465 MT, and 80,828 MT, respectively.In contrast, lower production values are observed in Kajiado North (Kajiado), Turkana South (Turkana), Samburu East (Samburu), Wajir North (Wajir), and Banissa (Mandera) with production of 209 MT, 157 MT, 106 MT, 65 MT, and 26 MT, respectively.Compared to 2025, the most significant maize production increases in 2026 are expected in districts such as Narok South (Narok), Narok West (Narok), Narok North (Narok), Laikipia North (Laikipia), and Makueni (Makueni), with differences of 7,280 MT, 6,684 MT, 5,068 MT, 4,415 MT, and 3,551 MT, respectively.These correspond to changes of 23%, 7%, 12%, 6%, and 6%.