AAgWa Crop Production Forecasts Briefs No. 341

T he crop production forecasts brief series by AKADEMIYA2063's Africa Agriculture Watch (AAgWa) aims to provide more accurate and timely data on harvests and yields for 11 major crops across nearly 50African countries.The timeliness, wide availability, and easy access to this type of data will allow stakeholders across the value chain to better plan and execute policy and business actions more efficiently.The data published in the briefs are generated through the Africa Crop Production (AfCP) model, an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based model applied to remotely sensed geo-biophysical data to produce estimates at pixel as well as administrative levels as early as the beginning of each growing season.In Brief 341, we provide forecasts on sorghum production in Kenya.In 2026, sorghum production in Kenya is projected to reach 266,875 metric tons (MT), a 2% increase over 2025 production levels.The highest sorghum producers are expected to be Kitui Rural (Kitui), Kitui South (Kitui), Ndhiwa (Homa Bay), Tharaka (Tharaka-Nithi), and Seme (Kisumu), with production levels estimated at 24,836 MT, 21,974 MT, 11,932 MT, 8,321 MT, and 8,088 MT, respectively.In contrast, lower production values are observed in Balambala (Garissa), Lafey (Mandera), Roysambu (Nairobi), Embakasi South (Nairobi), and Embakasi East (Nairobi), with production of 41 MT, 36 MT, 33 MT, 32 MT, and 29 MT, respectively.Compared to 2025, the most significant sorghum production increases in 2026 are expected in districts such as Wajir South (Wajir), Wajir North (Wajir), Narok West (Narok), Wajir West (Wajir), and Narok South (Narok), with differences of 2,017 MT, 946 MT, 792 MT, 695 MT, and 606 MT, respectively.These correspond to changes of 66%, 84%, 36%, 106%, and 28%.*Associate Scientist, Department of Data Intelligence and Governance, AKADEMIYA2063 **Senior Associate Scientist, Department of Data Intelligence and Governance, AKADEMIYA2063MT (Metric tons): 1 MT is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms.Change: refers to the relative difference and is calculated as (2026 prod -2025 prod) divided by 2025 prod.