AAgWa Crop Production Forecasts Briefs No. 358

T he crop production forecasts brief series by AKADEMIYA2063's Africa Agriculture Watch (AAgWa) aims to provide more accurate and timely data on harvests and yields for 11 major crops across nearly 50African countries.The timeliness, wide availability, and ease of access to this type of data will enable stakeholders across the value chain to plan and execute policy and business actions more efficiently.The data published in the briefs are generated through the Africa Crop Production (AfCP) model, an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based model applied to remotely sensed geo-biophysical data to produce estimates at pixel as well as administrative levels as early as the beginning of each growing season.In Brief 358, we provide forecasts on wheat production in Egypt.In 2026, wheat production in Egypt is projected to reach 9,917,474 metric tons (MT), indicating a 1% increase over 2025 production levels.The highest wheat producers are expected to be Unorganized in Al Buhayrah (Al Buhayrah), Shurtah al-Dakhlah (Al Wadi al Jadid), Unorganized in Al Minya (Al Minya), Unorganized in Aswan (Aswan), and Al-Husayniyah (Ash Sharqiyah), with production levels estimated at 561,682 MT, 483,480 MT, 408,491 MT, 379,278 MT, and 339,929 MT.In contrast, lower production values are observed in An-Nuzhah (Al Qahirah), 'Ain Schams (Al Qahirah), Al-Ganoub 2 (Bur Sa`id), Zarqa (Dumyat), and Al-'Arish 1 (Shamal Sina'), with production of 622 MT, 622 MT, 598 MT, 596 MT, and 576 MT, respectively.Compared to 2025, the most significant wheat production increases in 2026 are expected in districts such as Marsa Matruh (Matrouh), Unorganized in Al Buhayrah (Al Buhayrah), Al-Hammam (Matrouh), Al-Husayniyah (Ash Sharqiyah), and Ad-Dab'ah (Matrouh), with differences of 15,006 MT, 11,932 MT, 9,729 MT, 7,611 MT, and 7,149 MT, respectively.These correspond to changes of 11%, 2%, 24%, 2%, and 23%.