Theoretical Framework and Empirical Analysis of Stock Price and Trend Prediction Using LSTM Models

Changes in stock market prices are nonlinear, high-noise, and they change with time, which makes it hard for typical time series models to accurately capture their complicated patterns. This paper develops a forecasting model for stock prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, with a focus on the A-share market to thoroughly investigate the effectiveness of LSTM models in predicting stock prices and trends. The research employs the Kaggle dataset titled “S&P 500 Stock Data” covering the years 2013 to 2018, which includes key daily trading indicators like opening price and trading volume. When comparing the predictive performance of LSTM models to that of traditional machine learning models like random forests, it is clear that LSTM models are better at predicting short-term trends and prices than both traditional machine learning models and traditional time series models. This research offers novel analytical insights for forecasting financial markets and possesses practical implications for investor decision-making and risk management.