Quantifying Geospatial Logistics Risks in Construction Supply Chains through an Integrated GIS-4D BIM Framework

Construction supply chains are inherently sensitive to spatial and logistical disruptions, yet conventional project planning approaches, including standalone 4D BIM, rarely incorporate geospatial risk factors. This study proposes an integrated GIS-MCDM-4D BIM framework to quantify, simulate, and operationalize geospatial logistics risks within construction supply chains. The framework systematically translates GIS-derived spatial risk indicators, such as supplier accessibility, transportation network variability, and route vulnerability, into temporal constraints embedded in 4D BIM simulations. A real-world case study of a reinforced concrete project in Syria, involving multiple suppliers and a heterogeneous transportation network, is employed to validate the approach. Findings indicate that even minor spatial disruptions can cascade through interdependent construction activities, resulting in significant schedule delays. The integration of GIS and 4D BIM enables proactive, risk-informed planning, demonstrating that geospatial conditions exert a substantial influence on construction timelines. This framework advances beyond descriptive GIS applications by providing a quantitative, operational tool for enhancing schedule reliability, supplier selection, and decision-making in complex and unstable construction environments. The proposed methodology offers a transferable solution for managing geospatial logistics risks in diverse construction contexts.