Memory Overriding Statistics: The Behavioral Shaping Effect of the Availability Heuristic in Crises

This article explores how availability heuristics can lead people to rely on memory and emotions while neglecting statistical reasoning in crisis situations, thereby generating systematic biases. The article centers on two cases: the shift of American people to driving after the September 11 attacks in 2001, and the public's hesitation about vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that both cases reflect the public's overestimation of rare risks and underestimation of common risks, but there are differences in behavioral manifestations and time dimensions - the former is manifested as short-term substitution behavior, while the latter is manifested as long-term hesitation. Research shows that the media amplification effect and emotional response are also key factors driving this deviation. At the end of this article, policy implications are put forward: Crisis communication should not only rely on data, but also convey information in an intuitive, vivid and easy-to-remember way, while enhancing public trust to reduce the social costs caused by cognitive biases.