Review of Climate Modeling for Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is one of the most certain and highly destructive consequences of global warming, posing a serious threat to coastal communities worldwide. The ability to accurately predict its magnitude and rate directly underpins the efficacy of coastal adaptation planning. This paper systematically reviews the main physical mechanisms driving sea level rise and conducts a comparative analysis of semi-empirical models and process models in terms of performance, applicability, and uncertainties. Integrating key research findings from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the article comprehensively presents projections of global and regional sea level rise under different emission scenarios. The results show that under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the global average sea level could rise by up to 99 centimeters by 2100 and nearly 290 centimeters by 2300. Regional factors, such as land subsidence and ocean dynamics, will exacerbate localized impacts. This paper provides valuable reference for global coastal adaptation efforts.