Institutional Inertia and Path Dependency in the Energy Transition of Taiwan’s Cement Industry: A Multi-Level Perspective Analysis

Taiwan’s cement industry accounts for roughly 7 percent of national CO₂ emissions and faces EU CBAM and national net-zero mandates. This study applies the Multi-Level Perspective, carbon lock-in, and policy mix theories to examine decarbonization drivers and barriers in Taiwan’s oligopolistic, capital-intensive cement sector. Qualitative content analysis and process tracing reveal that entrenched technological paradigms, fragmented policy regimes, and immature low-carbon niches hinder systemic change. Landscape pressures (border carbon policies, green finance) are intensifying, yet regime inertia limits disruptive innovations (LC3, geopolymer cements, CCUS). Modeling suggests existing best practices can cut emissions by up to 40 percent by 2035, but deeper (> 80 percent) reductions require CCUS deployment. We propose dynamic carbon pricing with revenue recycling, green public procurement, accelerated binder standards, shared CCUS infrastructure, and just transition measures to overcome lock-in and enable deep decarbonization. This integrated framework advances transition theory and informs governance strategies for small open economies.