The Climate Temperature and Migrants’ Settlement Intention in Cities: A Study on China

This paper examines the impact of climate temperature on the settlement intentions of rural and urban migrants in Chinese cities, using data from the China Meteorological Data Service Center and the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2012–2018). By employing a logit regression model, we analyze migrants in 293 cities across 31 provinces. Our findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and migrants' settlement intentions, with extreme temperatures (above 32°C, 27°C-32°C, -12°C--7°C, and below -12°C) negatively affecting their willingness to settle. These results are robust across various sensitivity tests. Additionally, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the adverse effects of extreme temperatures on settlement intentions vary according to migrants' demographic and industry characteristics. Our findings highlight the disruptive potential of climate temperature on a significant portion of migrant workers in Chinese cities, underscoring the need for policymakers to address these challenges.