Policy Effects of Accelerated Depreciation of Fixed Assets on Corporate Financial Performance and Supply Chain Spillover: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2023, this study takes the accelerated depreciation policy of fixed assets from 2014 to 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment. It adopts the difference-in-differences (DID) method to identify the direct impact of policies on the financial performance of enterprises and their spillover effects along the supply chain. The findings reveal that: (1) The policy led firms to over-invest and expand production, which reduced how efficiently resources were allocated and hurt overall financial outcomes. (2) As firms cut back on purchasing, upstream suppliers faced tighter cash flow and saw their performance decline. (3) Simultaneously, part of the pressure was pushed downstream. Companies raised prices and lowered service levels, which squeezed margins and weakened the profits of downstream partners. These results point to the importance of more carefully designed policies. They also give firms useful guidance on how to adjust investment and financial decisions when responding to fiscal incentives.