The Impact of Income on Fertility Intention: Evidence from CFPS Microdata

In recent years, China’s persistently low fertility rate has become an increasingly pressing issue. Existing studies generally agree that economic conditions play a vital role in individual fertility decisions, yet the direction and mechanism of the income effect remain controversial. Using microdata from the 2020 and 2022 waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper applies a Logit regression model to examine the relationship between income and fertility intention among individuals of childbearing age. The results show a significantly positive effect of income on fertility intention, with a stronger impact observed among urban residents. Further subgroup analyses reveal a nonlinear pattern-individuals in the middle-income group exhibit the highest fertility intention. Robustness checks confirm that these findings remain stable across alternative model specifications and sample adjustments. This study provides new micro-level evidence on the role of economic incentives in shaping fertility intentions under China’s low-fertility context.