The effects of climate change on agricultural output and rural poverty in Morocco

Agriculture represents the main source of income for rural people in Morocco, and is substantially affected by climate change (CC). The average increase in temperatures observed since 1960 is 0.23°C, and precipitation follows a general downward trend in the three rainfall regions of Morocco. Faced with such findings, agriculture has nevertheless recorded an average increase in agricultural GDP of 6.9% between 2001 and 2020, and relative poverty in rural areas has fallen from 35% to 22.9%. Faced with this paradox, this article seeks to determine whether the current CC, approached by the increase in temperatures and the variability of precipitation, has effects on the four agricultural productions to which the majority of rural people are devoted and by extension on poverty. Thus, the use of the Pettitt test and the study of the correlations between these parametric variations of the CC and the average aggregated yields of productions between 2001 and 2020 did not reveal any significant link. With the exception of cereal yield during the 5 years of drought, effectively excluding the most vulnerable farmers, this result, distinct from the expectation resulting from the literature review, opens up other methodological research perspectives for a more detailed analysis.