Displacement and spillover effects of soybean and sugarcane on Amazon deforestation: A spatial analysis of indirect land-use change in Brazil

Global demand for food and biofuels has accelerated the expansion of agricultural frontiers, intensifying deforestation in tropical regions such as the Brazilian Amazon. While cattle ranching remains the primary direct driver, a substantial share of forest loss stems from indirect landuse change (ILUC) associated with soybean and sugarcane expansion in distant regions. Using a spatial dynamic panel model and economic, political, and land-use data, this study quantifies the magnitude and spatial diffusion of these indirect effects. Results indicate that soybean expansion indirectly accounted for 21,400 km2 of deforestation (13.7% of the total), whereas sugarcane expansion contributed 42,300 km2 (26.7%). These findings reveal strong cross-regional displacement dynamics within Brazil’s land-use system, showing that deforestation in the Amazon is partly driven by agricultural expansion outside the biome. Policies focused solely on local control are therefore insufficient; spatially coordinated strategies are required to internalize ILUC effects and foster sustainable land-use transitions.