Disaster displacement risk in Nigeria: An overview of the risk of future displacement

Nigeria faces high levels of disaster displacement. Between 2008 and 2024, the country recorded more than 9.9 million disaster displacements, the highest figure in Africa. Climate change is expected to intensify these risks under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios. Using IDMC’s updated Global Displacement Risk Model, the report estimates the likelihood and scale of future displacement under different climate change scenarios. The short risk profile synthesises information on hazard intensity, population vulnerability and exposure to identify displacement hotspots, key drivers and potential displacement impacts in Nigeria. Together, these provide a practical entry point for governments and partners to prioritise prevention and inform risk reduction.