Determinants of Separatism Vulnerability in Papua: Developing an Index for National Security Early Warning and Decision-Making

The article aims to identify determinants of a Papua Separatism Vulnerability Index and to outline foundations for a predictive National Security Early Warning System rooted in local realities. The article describes a context-based Separatism Vulnerability Index (SVI) integrating governance, identity politics, and early warning functions, based on qualitative field evidence and review of regulations and early warning frameworks, enabling risk mapping for early detection and response. Using a descriptive qualitative design with interviews (n=9), observations in Jayapura and Manokwari, and NVivo 12 coding, the authors found that vulnerability is driven by development gaps, structural inequality, governance failures, Melanesian identity politics, digital disinformation, and intergenerational ideological reproduction. The results illustrate that limited healthcare access, weak local food security, and inadequate dissemination of the uti possidetis juris principle further deepen distrust and instability. The method for effectiveness evaluation is confirmed by triangulating interviews, observations, and documents within risk assessment, monitoring, analysis and communication, and response capability. New research results support building an SVI and can be used by national and local authorities to strengthen proactive early warning and conflict prevention. This paper is novel because it operationalizes a Papua-specific SVI by consolidating governance, identity, and early warning determinants into one context-sensitive framework. Keywords: Papua; separatism; vulnerability index; early warning system; national security; governance; identity politics; digital disinformation; structural inequality; social stability; conflict prevention; public trust.