Sustainability Assessment of Water Resources Using a System Dynamics and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Approach

Sustainable water resource management has become a critical challenge amid rising demand, climate variability, and accelerating environmental degradation. Conventional evaluation approaches often fail to adequately capture the complex, dynamic, and multi-dimensional characteristics of water systems. This study proposes an integrated framework that combines System Dynamics (SD) modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to assess water resource sustainability in a holistic and adaptive manner. The objective is to evaluate key sustainability indicators—namely water availability, water quality, allocation efficiency, and ecosystem health—under multiple development and climate scenarios. An SD model was developed to simulate interactions among hydrological, socio-economic, and environmental variables over a 30-year time horizon. Model outputs were subsequently assessed using MCDA, incorporating stakeholder preferences and expert judgments to rank alternative water management strategies. The study focuses on a semi-arid watershed experiencing increasing water stress due to agricultural expansion and urban growth. The results indicate that integrated water-saving strategies, combined with effective demand-side management and ecosystem conservation measures, substantially enhance long-term sustainability performance across most scenarios. The proposed SD–MCDA framework facilitates the identification of robust strategies that balance environmental protection, economic viability, and social equity. Overall, this research highlights the value of integrating dynamic simulation with participatory decision-support tools to inform resilient and adaptive water governance in complex socio-environmental systems. Keywords: water sustainability; system dynamics; multi-criteria decision analysis; integrated water resource management; scenario analysis.