HOW DEVALUATION AFFECTS FOREIGN CURRENCY INVESTMENT HOUSEHOLD INCOME

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Authors: С. В. Мікулов, Iryna V. Shkodinа, О. В. Глущенко, Tetiana Stetsenko, Liudmyla Nechyporuk, М. Л. Швайко
Cited by: 0
References: 9

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of the tax burden on the investment strategies of Ukrainian investors, considering the factors of the UAH devaluation, the return of foreign currency financial instruments, and the investment period. Based on the use of correlation analysis and cluster analysis methods, key factors affecting the level of tax liabilities were identified. The influence of tax liabilities on the profitability of an investment portfolio under various macroeconomic conditions was modelled. For the analysis, 136,500 simulated investment scenarios were used, considering variable levels of UAH devaluation, financial asset returns, and investment timing. The simulation results showed that short-term strategies (up to 5 years) have high volatility of tax burden, especially in conditions of significant devaluation of the national currency. If the devaluation increases by more than 40%, the tax burden increases dramatically, especially if the portfolio yield is below 3%. The optimal conditions for a stable level of taxation are the return on the investment portfolio in the range from 7% to 15% per year, with a rate of devaluation of the UAH up to 10% per annum and an investment period of 10 to 25 years. The existing foreign practice of tax benefits and special investment accounts was investigated. A comparative analysis of the existing tax benefits in Ukraine showed that their real impact on investors is limited due to the low level of social compliance, inflated age restrictions, lack of broad asset diversification, and double taxation. Based on the results obtained, recommendations for reforming the tax policy in the investment sector were developed. The introduction of such reforms will increase the tax burden for investors, improve the investment climate, and reduce the risk of capital outflows abroad, which is critical in the context of Ukraine's financial stability.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Economic Issues in Ukraine Economic and Fiscal Studies Financial Literacy Pension Retirement Analysis

Publication details

Journal / source
Financial and credit activity problems of theory and practice
Volume
1
Issue
66
Pages
279–292
Publication date
28 February 2026
Language
EN