VIRTUAL ASSETS IN UKRAINE: ACCOUNTING, TAXATION, AND FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF MARKET LEGALIZATION

The relevance of the study is driven by the need to identify ways to replenish the state budget and to establish an effective tax rate for virtual assets in Ukraine in the context of the digital transformation of the economy. The purpose of the article is to assess the potential fiscal effect of legalizing the virtual asset market and to develop proposals for improving models of their taxation and accounting.The main results of the study are based on a comparative analysis of fiscal regulation in leading countries (the USA, India, and Japan), which demonstrates the advantages of a differentiated approach over a restrictive one in terms of market de-shadowing. A critical analysis of Draft Law No. 10225-d on amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine was conducted, revealing administrative risks and legal inconsistencies. The scientific novelty of the study is as follows:1. For the first time, a predictive additive model for calculating tax revenues is proposed, taking into account coefficients of tax discipline and legalization, designed to assess future fiscal effects. Since the market remains in the “shadows” and exact baseline indicators are unknown, instead of direct forecasting, scenario modeling was conducted using retrospective data from 2023-2024. This allowed for testing the model's functionality and visually demonstrating the scale of the lost fiscal potential and its hypothetical impact on the State Budget.2. Further development has been achieved in the approach to accounting for virtual assets within the framework of their recognition as intangible assets for the purposes of long-term holding by non-financial sector enterprises. Based on the identification criteria of IFRS and NP(S)AS, an original system of analytical sub-accounts (154.1, 127.1, 746.1, 976.1) was developed, defining their debit and credit assignments, which allows for the reliable identification of assets in accounting registers for managerial and tax purposes.The main conclusions indicate that the majority of modeled revenues will be of a one-off nature due to preferential legalization. This necessitates a strategic shift by the state from fiscal pressure toward stimulating the development of the institutional virtual asset sector to ensure sustainable budget revenues in the future. Furthermore, an acute need is identified to adapt the enterprise Chart of Accounts in the event of legislative recognition of virtual assets, in order to ensure their reliable representation in accounting records and financial statements.