Predicting University Success in Mongolia: The Roles of Admission Tests and Prior Academic Achievement

This research investigated the factors predicting academic success in Mongolian universities, focusing on university admission test scores and prior academic achievement (high school grade point average). Using data from 21,186 undergraduate students who graduated from major Mongolian universities between 2014 and 2024, the study examined how these factors relate to undergraduate grade point average. Results indicate that admission test scores show a statistically significant, albeit weak, association with undergraduate performance, whereas high school certificate scores demonstrate a stronger predictive effect. A model that includes high school certificate score, admission test score, and third-year grade point average demonstrates the strongest predictive power for final undergraduate grade point average. These findings suggest the need to re-evaluate admission criteria, placing greater emphasis on high school academic performance and reassessing the predictive validity of the national university admission examination. The results highlight the importance of strengthening pre-university education and creating supportive learning environments to enhance students’ academic success.