Prediction of confirmed cases and death of the COVID-19 using modified Avrami model

We have adapted the Johnson–Mehl–Avrami–Kolmogorov (JMAK) equation for COVID-19 disease spreading in networks like the kinetics of crystallization in solid-state materials at high temperatures. The temporal dependence of the global fraction of an infected network mass (individuals) is affected by the disease dynamic and is represented by an S-shaped curve. The derivative, i.e., the temporal dependence of the intensity f(t) with which the epidemic evolves, follows a bell-shaped curve. In essence, an analytical solution is presented describing the kinetics of information propagation along a d-dimensional network. Analyses of there data of infection cases and their mathematical interpretation are essential for supporting and guiding governmental measures to suppress and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 disease. This means that estimates with mathematical models to assess the development potential of sustained human–human transmission are needed. Since the disease has its own biological characteristics, the models need to be adapted to the variability of the regional characteristics and the decision-making by both the government and the population, to be able to deal with real situations. Thus, we analyzed the official data on COVID-19 disease in Brazil and used the JMAK modified equation to predict the evolution of the disease. The model indicates that a nucleation rate is of fifth order, which indicates that Brazilians were crowding with no respect to measures of social distance and disease prevention.