Climate Change Projections for Mediterranean Arid Regions: Shared Socio-economic Pathways for Algerian Sahara

Arid regions in northern part of Algerian Sahara are highly vulnerable to climate change, facing rising temperatures and declining precipitation that intensify droughts and strain ecosystems and water resources. These shifts jeopardize agriculture and livelihoods, making future climate predictions vital for developing effective adaptation strategies. This study aims to explore the scenarios of climate change in Biskra region under various Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios for 2035, 2055 and 2075; and highlights key trends in precipitation and temperature. Main findings show a general decline in average precipitation, dropping from 138.3 mm in 2035 to 122.4 mm in 2075, with variations across scenarios. In the optimistic SSP1-1.9 scenario (low emissions), precipitation remains relatively stable, while high-emission scenarios like SSP3-7 and SSP5-8.5 project sharper declines to 102.5 mm and 110.2 mm by 2075, respectively. Temperature forecasts indicate a steady rise in maximum, minimum and average temperature values. In SSP1-1.9, maximum temperatures slightly decrease from 27.9°C in 2035 to 27.8°C in 2075 and minimum temperatures dip from 16.8°C to 16.7°C. Conversely, in the severe (SSP5-8.5) scenario, maximum temperatures climb from 28.2°C to 31°C and minimum temperatures reach 19.8°C by 2075. Optimistic scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6) show modest temperature increases and stable precipitation, underscoring the benefits of emission reductions. Pessimistic scenarios (SSP3-7, SSP5-8.5), however, predict significant temperature spikes and precipitation drops, heightening drought and water scarcity risks. These findings emphasizes the urgent need for robust climate strategies in arid regions like Biskra to mitigate worsening impacts of climate change on the existing farming systems, water availability and local communities.