Forecasting of electricity consumption in Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models

Electricity consumption is the quantity of electric energy used by devices to produce the desired output. However, inefficiencies in energy management can lead to power shortages, increased costs, and supply instability. This study aimed to forecast the electricity consumption of Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur, from 2025 to 2029 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Historical monthly electricity consumption data from 2020 to 2024, obtained from Davao del Sur Electric Cooperative, Inc. (DASURECO), was analyzed to identify trends and seasonal patterns. The SARIMA (2,1,0) (1,0,0) [12] model was determined to be the most suitable for forecasting, based on statistical criteria such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Z-test. Before forecasting 2025-2029 electricity consumption, model validation was conducted by forecasting 2024 values and comparing them with the actual 2024 monthly electricity consumption data, confirming high accuracy through error metrics. The forecasted results indicate moderate fluctuations in electricity consumption, with an overall trend of slight decline and stabilization after 2025. This is likely due to industrial supply reliability, energy-efficient technologies, and conservation programs. The findings provide valuable insights in planning infrastructure development, optimizing electricity distribution, and ensuring a sustainable energy future for Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur.