An Assessment of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Poverty in Selected West African Countries

This study examines the impact of inflation, exchange rate, and selected macroeconomic variables on poverty in Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Liberia over the period 2000–2023. Poverty is proxied by GDP per capita, while the explanatory variables include inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure on social services, money supply, and net exports. To capture both cross-country and country-specific dynamics, the study employs panel data analysis using a fixed effects (Panel Least Squares) model alongside country-specific Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions. The results reveal that inflation and money supply exert a significant negative impact on poverty reduction across the five countries, with particularly strong effects observed in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Government expenditure on social services exhibits a mixed influence, significant in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire but insignificant in the remaining countries. These findings revealed the critical role of price stability and sound monetary management in poverty alleviation. The study contributes to the literature by providing updated multi-country evidence on the macroeconomic determinants of poverty in West Africa. It recommends that policymakers prioritize inflation-targeting frameworks, improve the efficiency of social spending, and strengthen macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable poverty reduction.