Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate-Environmental Risks and the Vulnerable Population in Thailand for Policy Interventions

This study examined climate-related risks to public health, settlements and human security in Thailand, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly.Distinguishing itself from traditional assessments, this research innovatively integrated future climate projections from 2016-2035 under a highemission scenario of RCP8.5 with data about current structural vulnerability, based on the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) in 2024.This approach proactively identified "at-risk" areas where future environmental hazards might exacerbate existing social inequalities.The analysis on 76 provinces except Bangkok, utilized Bivariate Polygon Render to visualize risk-poverty intersections and Local Spatial Autocorrelation (Local Moran's I) to rigorously detect statistically significant spatial clusters.Results indicated that the Northeastern and Western regions consistently faced elevated risks.Quantitative analysis confirmed critical "High-High" hotspots in the Northeast, specifically in Khon Kaen (LMI = 1.103, p = 0.004) and Buriram (LMI = 1.724, p = 0.008), where high climate exposure significantly overlapped with child multidimensional poverty.Conversely, Mae Hong Son emerged as a significantly "Low-High" spatial outlier (LMI = -0.634,p = 0.008), highlighting a region with concentrated elderly vulnerability despite lower relative climate risks.These findings underscored the utility of MPI over simple population counts for policy targeting.Ultimately, the study supports climate justice principles by providing spatially explicit evidence to guide interventions that address both local needs and structural inequalities.