Impacts of the 2023 NCAA Football Rules Changes on Scoring and the Totals Market
Abstract
The National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) introduced rule changes prior to the 2023–24 season. According to the Football Foundation Rules Committee, “…the most significant 2023 football rule changes involve adjustments to the timing and clock rules,” with the purpose to shorten the length of the game and to “…moderately reduce the number of plays per game.” We examine the impact of these changes on actual and expected scoring during the season. The rule changes led to lower average scoring, which was not fully encompassed at the start of the season in the financial (betting) market. The early season volatility in the market subsided as the season progressed resulting in a generally efficient market.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Sports Analytics and Performance
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Physical Education and Sports Studies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- The Journal of Prediction Markets
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 69–74
- Publication date
- 25 February 2026
- Language
- EN