Local knowledge and the dynamics of resilience in social-ecological systems: land use change impacts on acequia systems

Land use change (LUC) is a major cause of vulnerability in social-ecological systems (SES), particularly in acequias.Acequias are agriculture-based communities, mostly located in northern New Mexico, United States.Acequia communities are experiencing rapid residential expansion, leading to the loss of irrigated fields, fragmentation of agricultural activities, and threats to their multifunctional roles.Although prior studies have examined the resilience of acequia systems in coping with land use change, most have primarily focused on acequias' functions rather than the underlying dynamics that shape their resilience.There remains a lack of research exploring the potential leverage points and feedback that influence acequia resilience, particularly from the perspective of local knowledge and in the context of land use change.This study employed open-ended discussions with local stakeholders and field visits, together with triangulation of local knowledge with historical secondary data, to characterize a Qualitative System Dynamics Model (QSDM) that examines the dynamic structures and key drivers shaping acequia system resilience in coping with land use change.Findings corroborated previous socio-hydrologic feedback patterns but also revealed multiple feedback processes influencing acequia resilience that have gone unrecognized and, therefore, remain unstudied to date.The findings also highlighted several potential leverage points that influence acequia resilience, including agricultural opportunity costs, youth engagement, and secure water rights.The results further revealed that agricultural opportunity cost, in particular, strongly influences land-use decisions.Youth engagement in governance, irrigation practices, and cultural traditions strengthens social cohesion, fosters mutualism, enhances attachment to land (querencia), and reduces the willingness to sell agricultural land.Although hydrological drivers, including surface water-groundwater (SW-GW) connectivity maintained by aquifer recharge from irrigation, are critical for the general resiliency of the acequias, socioeconomic drivers, such as land price and youth participation, play key roles in coping with residential expansion.Findings showed that increasing farm profitability makes farming more competitive with residential development, thereby sustaining acequia resilience.