Elections in Brazil: Whoever Wins Will Be Bound by the Rural Caucus

All eyes are on Brazil’s presidential race - sitting president Lula against former president Jair Bolsonaro's son, Flávio - but on 4 October 2026 Brazilians will also elect a new Congress. Whoever takes control of the executive, one thing looks certain: the rural caucus, a multiparty coalition representing agribusiness, is poised to retain, if not increase, its grip on the legislative branch. In the first quarter of this century, Brazilian agribusiness rapidly expanded as foreign demand for agricultural commodities - particularly from China - surged. New agrarian elites managed to translate their growing economic power into political representation - as epitomised by the rural caucus, which roughly quadrupled in size in this period. In addition to representing agribusiness interests, the rural caucus became a major force in Brazilian conservative politics and the largest bloc in Congress. By the start of the current legislative period (2023-2026), it accounted for 59 per cent of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 62 per cent in the Senate. Whoever wins the next presidential election - left or right - will need to accommodate core ruralist demands to build a governing coalition. Given the current international context, this may further narrow the scope for Brazil's multilateral initiatives, especially on climate-related matters, and also constrain the country's economic policy and diplomatic room for manoeuvre more broadly.