Perspective Chapter: The Illiberal Social Contract in the Western Balkans – A Silent Threat to EU Norms and Stability

The Western Balkans, despite their formal commitment to democratic transition and EU integration, remain marked by insufficient socio-political and economic stability, as well as entrenched hybrid regimes and a deepening “Illiberal Social Contract.” In this context, self-proclaimed democratic actors consistently compromise the core values of the rule of law, inclusion, and civil liberties to consolidate clientelist rule and reduce public accountability. Media, civil society, and citizens’ activism remain, in some cases, weak and, in other instances, ineffective, and are unable to challenge this illiberal status quo. This research examines the dynamics of this persistent illiberal equilibrium, questioning the weak rapport between government and society, as well as the generally limited social response to non-democratic practices, despite periodic mobilizations that have achieved little tangible or lasting impact. Drawing on selected case studies across the region, it explores how specific domestic dynamics are more constraining in certain states, thereby excluding genuine democratic change and EU-compatible reforms. This illiberal trap needs to be understood to prepare the EU for its future. While the Union itself is subject to internal and external pressures, the stagnation or backsliding of its closest candidate members has strategic implications, undermining its soft power, regional stability, and credibility as a promoter of democratic norms. The chapter offers suggestions on how the EU, as the leading actor involved in the region, can help reajust the integration path of the Western Balkan countries. A successful transition in the region is not only vital to the Western Balkans but also fundamental to the long-term security, stability, and consistency of the EU’s integration.