Dispersion of Particulate Matter Using AERMOD Model and Health Risk Assessment: Case Study Saveh Gypsum Industry

Air pollution remains a major environmental challenge, and gypsum industries contribute significantly to particulate matter (PM10) emissions. This study quantified PM10 emissions from the chimney of a white gypsum factory (Saveh, Iran), using EPA emission factors. AERMOD dispersion model simulated PM10 concentrations across the region, incorporating chimney data, meteorological records, and local topography. Maximum concentrations within 3 and 5 km radii were analyzed at 1-hour, 8-hour, 24-hour, monthly, and annual intervals. The results showed that the maximum PM10 concentrations in 24 hours were 32.62 μg/m3 (3 km) and 29.34 μg/m3 (5 km), which are 78.25 and 80.44% lower than the Iranian national standard (150 μg/m3), respectively. Health risk assessments showed the non-carcinogenic risk index and carcinogenic risk index within acceptable limits for children and adults. However, cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from regional industries may increase long-term risks to surrounding villages.