THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST

In developing economies such as Türkiye, industrialization and economic growth play a crucial role in shaping both macroeconomic performance and environmental quality. Rapid industrial expansion may intensify environmental pressures through rising carbon emissions. Therefore, understanding the long-run dynamics among industrialization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions is essential for designing sustainable economic policies. This study analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions, industrial value added, and real GDP in Türkiye using econometric models based on the Fourier approach. The main objective is to determine whether Türkiye’s growth and industrialization process has followed a carbon-intensive path in the long run.Using annual data covering 1970–2024, the stationarity properties of lnCO2, lnGDP, and IND are examined through the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) tests. The long-run relationship among the variables is investigated using the Fourier-Shin cointegration test, which captures smooth structural changes without pre-specifying break dates. Following confirmation of cointegration, long-run coefficients are estimated via Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) with Newey–West corrections. The results indicate that industrial value added and economic growth have a positive and statistically significant impact on CO2 emissions in the long run, suggesting that Türkiye’s growth trajectory remains carbon-intensive.