Impact of climatic hazards on crop yields in Senegal: The case of groundnuts

Senegal, a Sahelian country in West Africa, faces growing challenges from climate change threatening its agricultural sector. This study analyzes the impact of climatic hazards on agricultural yields in Senegal, focusing on groundnut crops. Using climate and agricultural data, the analysis examines temperature variations, rainfall irregularities and extreme weather events. Two modeling approaches, Poisson regression and Spatial Autoregressive Regression (SAR), examine the effect of climatic factors on agricultural productivity. Results reveal significant correlations, with strong positive correlation between rainfall and crop yield, and moderate positive correlation with mean temperature. SAR lag model analysis by maximum likelihood estimation shows good fit, with pseudo R-squared substantially explaining yield variability. The study highlights the crucial importance of developing adaptive farming strategies considering complex climate-production interactions. This underscores adopting sustainable farming methods designed for the Senegalian climate to increase yield and adaptive capacity of the groundnut sector. By providing detailed information on yield-influencing factors, this research contributes to existing literature and offers insights to guide climate change adaptation and resilience policies in Senegalese agriculture. Key words: Climatic hazards, agricultural yield, Senegal, modeling, groundnut crop, West Africa.