Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the temperature trend in the Republic of Guinea

Climate variability in Guinea is characterized by various extreme weather events, including droughts, heat waves, floods, and rainfall disruptions. These events are expected to become longer, more frequent, and more intense, thus increasing climate risks for the country's populations and ecosystems. This research analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and trend of heat extremes in Guinea, based on the 95th percentiles of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over the period 1983–2016. The study employs a methodological approach combining several analyses: the spatiotemporal distribution of mean heat extremes, the identification of anomalies in the 95th percentiles of Tmin and Tmax using the Lamb test, the detection of break years using the Pettitt test, and the assessment of trends in temperature extremes using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used come from high-resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) spatial climate reanalyses. The results reveal an estimated average increase of 0.0651 °C/year for Tmax95 and 0.0619 °C/year for Tmin95. This trend suggests a more pronounced warming of minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures, reflecting an intensification of nighttime warming in Guinea. Although each natural region of Guinea has its own specific climatic characteristics, the overall trend shows a rise in temperatures, impacting various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and biodiversity. Further analysis by studying the characteristics of heat waves in Guinea, particularly their frequency, duration, and intensity, would be valuable in order to better anticipate their effects and guide climate change adaptation strategies. Key words: Spatio-temporal heat waves, trend, Mann-Kendall test, Guinea.