Tax Evasion and Public Financial Management Effectiveness in Post-Conflict South Sudan

Post-independent South Sudan faces significant challenges in establishing effective governance and public financial management (PFM), with widespread tax evasion emerging as a major impediment to domestic revenue mobilization. This study examines the impact of tax evasion on PFM effectiveness using a mixed-methods approach. Quantitative data were collected through a structured survey of 90 South Sudan Revenue Authority (SSRA) officials, with a 90% response rate, while 12 in-depth interviews provided qualitative insights. Descriptive and inferential statistics, alongside thematic analysis, were employed to analyze the data. Findings indicate that tax evasion profoundly undermines fiscal stability, public service quality, economic equity, public trust, and decision-making processes, with an overall mean impact score of 4.24 on a five-point scale (p < 0.001, Table 2). Correlation analyses reveal strong interconnections among these dimensions, particularly between public services quality and public trust (r = 0.71, p < 0.01, Table 2). Qualitative findings corroborate these results, highlighting revenue shortfalls, service deterioration, and erosion of citizen trust. The study concludes that tax evasion constitutes a systemic threat to PFM in South Sudan, emphasizing the need for institutional capacity building, strengthened enforcement, public awareness campaigns, and strategic policy interventions. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers aiming to enhance fiscal resilience and state legitimacy in fragile post-conflict contexts. This study makes a novel contribution by providing the first empirical evidence from South Sudan on the systemic relationship between tax evasion and PFM effectiveness, demonstrating that revenue leakage creates cascading effects across fiscal stability, service delivery, and public trust. The findings offer evidence-based guidance for policymakers in fragile post-conflict contexts seeking to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization.