The Impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Rwanda’s Horticultural Export Competitiveness: A Post-2023 Analysis

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to boost intra-African trade by eliminating tariffs and reducing non-tariff barriers. This study examines AfCFTA’s impact on Rwanda’s horticultural export competitiveness during the post-2023 Guided Trade Initiative. Using a descriptive research design, secondary data were drawn from NAEB Rwanda annual reports and export databases, NISR Statistical Yearbook 2024, MINAGRI Rwanda sector reports, RDB export promotion reports, AfCFTA Secretariat reports, e-Tariff Book (2024), World Bank Rwanda Economic Update, and WTO Tariff Analysis Online, covering fiscal years 2020/2021 to 2023/2024. Data were analysed through descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indices, and comparative tariff analysis, and an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model tested the causal relations of AfCFTA tariff liberation and horticultural export competitiveness in Rwanda. Findings indicate horticultural exports grew at a 32.1% CAGR, reaching $75 million in 2023/2024, driven by vegetables ($42.3 million) and fruits ($30.6 million), while flowers declined by 80.7%. The AfCFTA reduced average tariffs from 21.0% to 5.8% in non-REC markets; however, only 4.9% of exports reached new AfCFTA destinations, with DR Congo (49.6%) and Europe (36.5%) remaining dominant. RCA analysis confirmed a strong advantage in chili peppers (6.34), avocados (5.12), and French beans (4.92), but a disadvantage in flowers (0.43). Infrastructure deficits, transport costs, and limited Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) compliance constrain market diversification. The study recommends cold chain investment, regulatory strengthening, and smallholder capacity building.