Podobieństwo cykli koniunkturalnych w wybranych ugrupowaniach integracyjnych

Business cycle research allows for diagnosing the state of the economy, making precise predictions of key macroeconomic variables and it facilitates the planning and execution of monetary and fiscal policies. Furthermore, this type of research helps to evaluate the level of integration within integration groupings and to determine the potential impact of exogenous shocks on a country’s economy. The aim of the research discussed in the article is to assess the degree of business cycle similarity by means of a new method, which combines time series decomposition using the Hodrick-Prescott filter with an analysis of cycle morphology (including its duration, amplitude and phase shift). This approach enables a multidimensional assessment, which takes into account both temporal alignment and the characteristics of cycle fluctuations, thereby allowing more precise comparisons between countries and integration groupings. The paper highlights the strengths and potential weaknesses of the presented research method. The research concerned the business cycles (measured based on the fluctuations in GDP per capita) of 12 selected leading integration groupings. The study spans the period from 1991 to 2022 and grows on empirical data from the World Bank DataBank. The analysis shows that the highest similarity of business cycles was observed among the economies of the Central American Common Market and the European Union, while the lowest among the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement countries.