The impact of late spring frosts on apple cultivation in the territory of the Republic of Moldova in the context of climate change

This study aims to assess the impact of late spring frosts on apple crops (Malus domestica Borkh.) in the Republic of Moldova, with a case focus on the Ialpug river basin. The objectives were to analyze the duration and intensity of late frosts in relation to sensitive phenological stages of apple trees and to identify critical overlap periods with bud development and flowering. The research used phenological and climatic data from 2005-2020 provided by the State Hydrometeorological Service, associating phenological observations with nearby meteorological stations. Statistical processing was conducted in Microsoft Excel, while spatio-temporal modeling was performed through linear interpolation in ArcGIS. Results show that southern Moldova, especially the Ialpug basin, is highly vulnerable, with minimum temperatures reaching -3.5 °C during critical growth stages, causing considerable damage. The findings underline the need for adaptive orchard planning, the selection of tolerant cultivars and rootstocks, and the implementation of early warning systems to strengthen the resilience of apple production in the face of more frequent and severe late spring frost events.