Development of the carbon market and the green certificate market: Romania, Poland, and Germany

Purpose – This paper investigates the evolution and effectiveness of carbon markets and green certificate systems as key mechanisms for achieving climate sustainability goals. By focusing on Romania, Poland, and Germany between 2015 and 2025, it aims to evaluate the regulatory, economic, and technological factors that shape these environmental markets and their contribution to climate neutrality objectives. Research design/method/approach – The study combines time-series econometric analysis with an extensive literature review to assess the development and performance of carbon trading and green certificate markets. It examines the interaction between cap-and-trade schemes and renewable energy certificate systems, identifying both synergies and conflicts in their design and implementation. In addition, the research considers the influence of digitalization and blockchain technologies on market transparency and efficiency. Practical implication – The results provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to design transparent and effective market-based environmental policies. Understanding how these mechanisms interact helps refine regulatory strategies to enhance market integrity, efficiency, and alignment with European climate goals. Originality/Value – This paper contributes to the growing literature on environmental economics by offering a comparative, multi-country analysis of carbon and green certificate markets in Central and Eastern Europe. It integrates policy, econometric, and technological perspectives, highlighting innovative pathways toward achieving climate neutrality through market-based instruments.