Socio-economic and risk-perceptual determinants of wood-based modular housing adoption in Nigeria

This study investigated socio-economic and risk-perceptual determinants of wood-based modular housing acceptance, drawing on three theoretical dimensions: economic cost-benefit perception, socio-cultural attachment to masonry construction, and perceived risk of fire and pest infestation. A sequential mixed-methods design was employed, combining structured questionnaire surveys (n = 291) drawn from a population of 1,200 middle-income prospective homeowners across five major cities with semi-structured qualitative interviews (n = 25). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) established measurement validity: all standardized factor loadings exceeded 0.70, average variance extracted (AVE) values exceeded 0.50, and composite reliability (CR) values exceeded 0.80. SEM model fit indices (χ2/df = 2.14; CFI = 0.947; TLI = 0.936; RMSEA = 0.063; SRMR = 0.052) all met recommended thresholds. Multiple regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used for hypothesis testing. Findings confirmed all three hypotheses: perceived cost-effectiveness positively predicted adoption intention (β = 0.387, p < 0.001); socio-cultural attachment to masonry negatively predicted adoption intention (β = −0.291, p < 0.001); and elevated risk perception significantly reduced adoption intention (β = −0.243, p < 0.001). The combined model explained 32.6% of the variance in adoption intention (R2 = 0.326). Risk perceptions were shown to reflect public information asymmetry regarding the documented performance of modern fire-retardant and preservative-treated engineered timber. Grounded in Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation Theory and Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour, the study proposes the Socio-Economic Acceptance of Residential Prefabrication (SEARP) Framework and provides policy and industry recommendations for advancing wood-based modular housing in South East Nigeria.