Paying As They Go: Payment Patterns Trends of Solar Home System Users

Solar Home Systems, propelled by the Pay-As-You-Go model, have been spearheading rural electrification efforts across Sub-Saharan Africa for over a decade. However, due to a lack of data transparency, there has been limited oversight over the real impact of these installations. This study offers an unprecedented look into the reality of PAYGo connections from the users’ perspective. Through an unsupervised deep learning approach, the study synthesises the payment patterns of over 220,000 SHS users, across Rwanda and Kenya, revealing contrasting experiences. Monthly-paying users are at 2 to 5 times higher risk of early default due to their behavioural preference, while differences between age and sex groups underline the need for more differentiated services. Crucially, however, the analysis exposes a persistent share intermittent energy access patterns and late-term defaults, which are currently not accounted for but can – left unaddressed – significantly undermine confidence in a PAYGo led rural electrification agenda.