Evaluating the contribution of sustainable development goals to climate change mitigation in BRI countries

Climate change mitigation in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies requires coordinated progress across energy, urban and waste systems aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study examines how renewable energy adoption (SDG 7.2), energy intensity (SDG 7.3), urban carbon footprint (SDGs 11.6 and 13.2), recycling rates (SDG 12.5) and municipal solid waste collection coverage (SDGs 11.6.1 and 12.5) influence national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (SDG 13.2) across 30 data-rich BRI countries from 2000 to 2023. A multi-source panel dataset is constructed using information from the World Development Indicators, EDGAR, Eurostat, the Energy Institute Statistical Review and UNEP/UN-Habitat. Short- and long-run elasticities are estimated using the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) estimator to address cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and endogeneity. The results indicate that higher shares of renewable energy, greater recycling rates and broader waste collection coverage significantly reduce GHG emissions in both the short and long run. In contrast, higher energy intensity and larger urban carbon footprints exacerbate emissions. Quantitatively, a 10% increase in renewable energy adoption is associated with a 3-4% reduction in long-run emissions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrated, multi-sector climate policies that combine clean energy expansion, urban emission management and circular-economy waste strategies across heterogeneous BRI economies.