Chairperson characteristics, dividend policy, and firm value: evidence from a Bayesian analysis in Vietnamese listed firms

Understanding dividend policy and its effect on firm value is critical, as dividend decisions convey information about profitability and future growth. This study examines the effect of dividend policy on firm value and the moderating effects of the chairperson’s gender and ownership. A Bayesian regression framework is employed, which enables the integration of prior knowledge and yields full posterior distributions rather than relying solely on point estimates. Using a panel dataset of Vietnamese listed firms from 2010 to 2022, the Bayesian results indicate that dividend payouts positively affect firm value, signaling potential growth and financial stability, thereby reducing information asymmetry and enhancing investor confidence. Moreover, the chairperson’s gender and shareholding proportion significantly moderate this effect: female chairpersons are generally more supportive of dividend payments and associated with higher firm value, whereas chairpersons with larger shareholdings tend to weaken the link between cash dividends and firm value. Robustness checks confirm the reliability and consistency of these findings.