COVID-19 and preferences for progressive taxation: evidence from a 2020 U.S. ballot proposal

A large political economy literature argues that periods of economic hardship can make redistribution more popular with voters. Based on these claims, recent research has investigated whether the Covid-19 pandemic shocked voters’ policy preferences. The results in these studies are inconsistent and based on hypothetical policy proposals. By contrast, in this note, I investigate the relationship between the pandemic and support for progressive taxation using a real world case of revealed voter preferences: a 2020 Illinois ballot proposal to move from a flat to a graduated income tax system. Combining zip code-level health and economic data with local results from the referendum, I find that various indicators of pandemic-related economic burdens are not meaning fully associated with a higher vote share in favor of the progressive tax proposal. Supplementary analyses using a national panel of voters in 2016 and 2020 similarly reveal no association between personal hardships early in the pandemic and support for progressive taxation.