Living on shaky ground: how earthquake risk shapes mortgage decisions

This paper examines mortgage decision responses to the Jiuzhaigou Earthquake. Our difference-in-difference-in-differences specification investigates the variation of potential risk, attention and time. Based on the comprehensive data from the China Mortgage Survey, we find that mortgage applicants living in cities with higher seismic fortification and more intensive attention tend to be more likely to choose mortgages with equal loan payments and lower down payment to income ratio. Meanwhile, they are more likely to default strategically while less likely to borrow from city commercial banks with higher risk.