Optimisation Strategy for Fuel Loading on Ultra-Long-Haul Flights Based on Dynamic Programming and Probabilistic Modelling

This paper aims to establish a stochastic optimisation model based on dynamic programming and probabilistic modelling to calculate the optimal fuel load for ultra-long-haul routes (e.g., CX251). Building upon the fuel consumption characteristics of the operating aircraft, a mathematical equilibrium model balancing fuel costs and risks is developed by quantifying the probability of delays at destination airports. The research findings will provide airlines (using Cathay Pacific as an example) with a quantitative decision-making tool to minimise fuel costs while ensuring safety, thereby enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.